Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Leonard Richardson over at Crummy.com has put together a Stock Spam Effectiveness Monitor that mashes together stock charts from Yahoo! Finance and stock spam. The amount of spam is indicated by the red lines. While for many stocks, the spam is sent before the market opens so it's hard to connect it to any movement in the stock, there are some where spam can be correlated to movement in the stock that is being touted.
An academic study on stock spam found
that stocks experience a significantly positive return on days when they are heavily touted via spam, and on the day preceding such touting. Volume of trading also responds positively and significantly to heavy touting. Indeed, on a day when no tout has been detected in our database, the likelihood of a touted stock being the most actively traded stock that day is only 6%. On the other hand, on days when there is touting activity, the probability of a touted stock being the single most actively traded stock is 81%. Returns in the days following touting are significantly negative.Richardson's been doing this for two years now so there is a wealth of data to crunch. There's also a handy list of spam-contaminated stocks to be on the lookout for.
(via Monkey Bites)
The Rise of Specialized Social Networks (Plus a Review of SocialPicks)
SETI@Home for Stocks
How to Invert Data: Excel Tutorial Using Google Stock Prices